The end of 2020 saw the approval of the first coronavirus vaccines and the launch of vaccine administrations in LTCFs through the Pharmacy Partnership for Long-Term Care on December 21st, 2020 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and December 28th, 2020 (Moderna). As of February 22, 2021, about 4.5 million residents and staff have received one or more dose through the Partnership; over 2 million residents and staff have received both doses. In addition, some states and some LTCFs have vaccinated residents or staff outside the Partnership. Vaccinations have increased outside of LTCFs as well, though at a significantly lower rate.
Weekly deaths in nursing homes fell 66% between the last week of December, when the federal government’s long-term care vaccination partnership with CVS and Walgreens ground into gear, and the first week of February, according to the Foundation. That decline nonetheless represents more than 2,000 fatalities, but it came as nationwide deaths, excluding nursing homes, spiked 61% to nearly 20,000 during the week ended February 7, prompting the Foundation to ponder whether the end of the crisis in LTCFs has finally come into view.
KFF stopped short of definitively concluding that the vaccine clinics were the direct cause of the drop, noting that not every facility started the inoculation process on the same day, but the general association is obvious.
“According to the CDC, there has been strong evidence that the vaccines prevent severe illness and death, and the sharp divergence in deaths inside and outside of LTCFs is consistent with that evidence,” KFF observed. “In addition, given the emerging research around the vaccines’ ability to prevent transmission of the virus, there is reason to believe that the vaccine may be playing a part in reducing virus transmission within nursing homes, contributing to the more rapid decline in new cases in nursing facility residents than in the overall population.”
Total case numbers in nursing homes dropped 83% in the post-clinic period, far outpacing the 45% dip among the general, non-LTC population. “While cases have dropped both within and outside nursing facilities, new nursing facility resident cases peaked earlier (week ending December 20, 2020) as compared to in the general non-nursing facility resident population (week ending January 10, 2021) and declined at a faster rate in nursing facilities than outside nursing facilities,” KFF noted.
The most recent data marks a swift turnaround from record-high death counts seen in LTCFs at the beginning of 2021. One in every 51 residents of LTCFs died during the four weeks bookending New Year’s Day, for a grim total of nearly 20,000, according to an AARP analysis.
“While the record high death rate in the four weeks ending Jan. 17 represents only a slight increase from the previous month, when 1 in every 53 residents died from COVID-19, it is more than a quadrupling of the resident death rate at the end of the summer,” AARP noted.
The gains also came amid continued concerns about relatively low uptake of vaccines among nursing home staff. Only 37.5% of workers accepted vaccinations during the first month of clinics, according to the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), as compared to 77.8% of residents. Meanwhile the debate regarding mandating vaccines roils.
Sources:
"Nursing Home COVID Deaths Fell 66% in Wake of Vaccine Clinics — Even as Overall U.S. Fatalities Rose 61%," Skilled Nursing News, February 25, 2021.
Is the End of the Long-Term Care Crisis Within Sight? New COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in Long-Term Care Facilities Are Dropping, KFF, February 24, 2021.
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